Models I Live By

A Decision Making Model for Life

1. Simple problems require reason.
2. Unprecedented problems require 2 things: (1) mental flexibility and (2) emotion. You must use them together.
3. You’ll often regret overspending time making a simple decision.
4. When you say you’re certain you’re right, you’re stepping into dangerous territory.
5. Uncertain problems require you to unfold the arguments as they arise in your head.
   • You should entertain competing hypotheses.
   • If it makes you question a belief you have, that’s a good thing.
   • Remind yourself what you don’t know.
   • Finish with what you think.
6. Emotions must be balanced in decision making.
   • If you lean on them too heavily, they can trick you. The most common example of an emotion that tricks you is fear. When the universe invites you to do something uncomfortable and you steer away, your primitive brain wants you comfortable.
   • If you ignore them, you may end up doing things you don’t want too often and find you have lived a life you do not want to live.
7. Listen to the arguments inside your head. Study your own thinking (it’s a theme Ray Dalio talks about). If you begin recording your decisions and reflecting on them, this is a good way to study your own thinking.